numbers would cluster closer together. If every one of our customer service reps was well-trained, polite and super-responsive, the numbers would cluster closer together. If we answered every call by the third ring instead of dumping calls into voice mail during peak periods, the numbers would cluster closer together.
“ Management can do the things that have to be done to make the standard deviation smaller and to move the average higher, but there is nothing one single salesperson can do about those things. As long as the salesperson works in an environment where so many variables outside his or her control determine the outcome, I will repeat that, yes, there is no reason to treat any salesperson differently from any other as long as both have sales between $ 195,000 and $ 597,000.”
“ Look, Harold, I appreciate what you are telling me, but this is exactly the opposite of everything I’ ve ever heard about sales. Frankly, I’ m pretty sure there is a hole in that argument somewhere if I knew enough math to figure it out.”
Harold put his elbows on the table and rubbed his temples before replying.“ Jim, I’ ve been using control charts like this to run my manufacturing operations for 25 years and I have to tell you I absolutely stake my reputation on the science of statistics and the importance of identifying which outputs are part of systems and which are special cases. And, now that you bring it up, I realize that nobody ever went broke underestimating the American people’ s lack of understanding of probability distributions and statistics.”
Jim bristled at Harold’ s suggestion that his intuition was inferior to Harold’ s statistical background.“ Harold, what exactly do you mean by that?”
“ I remember that you went to Las Vegas last year,” Harold explained.“ Do you remember the vast scale of the buildings and how much new construction was going on?” Jim nodded.“ Where do you think all the money came from? From tourists. Casinos that are very sophisticated about probability distributions and statistics took that money from tourists who were not. The casinos can’ t tell you what will happen on the next roll of the dice, but it’ s a sure thing they can tell you exactly what will happen when the dice are rolled a million times.”
“ Harold, I am going to be very direct with you. If I knew more about math I might completely buy into your argument or I might come up with a brilliant rebuttal to prove you’ re all wet. As far as I can follow your arguments, I can’ t find any holes in what you said, but my gut tells me there is a hole in there somewhere that I just can’ t put my finger on. Honestly, no matter how much math you throw at me, the best you’ re ever going to do is to get me to accept your logic intellectually without really believing it in my gut.”
“ Point well taken, Jim,” said Harold.“ Let me see what I can come up with and I’ ll get back to you. Let’ s get together the same time next week and we’ ll see if I can’ t come up with an example that is a little less academic and a little more real-world.”
To be continued next month.